The opinions expressed here are just that - opinions.

19 November 2008

We Read Your Letters

A nice lady took the time to comment on my last blog entry. She had a lot of good points, and so I wanted to share them with you:

I've only just found your blog, so maybe I'm missing part of your 
thoughts on food storage for survival.  The point of having survival 
food is not just to store it, but to use it. Don't just buy it and put 
it away but work it into your daily food plan.  Replenish as needed - 
typically every 3 months is adequate but do it on a rotating basis.

My husband and I currently have enough food stored to eat, without 
going shopping, for 4 months. This includes meat/fish, veggies, 
starches, spices, sugar\honey etc.   We grow sprouts and living in 
Florida can garden outside for all but the hottest 2 months, Aug & 
Sept.  We've just started harvesting our lettuce, swiss chard, chives 
and have tomatoes, peppers, sugar snap peas, carrots coming along.  
Sprouting seeds and garden seeds should be included in survival food 
stores and don't forget your favorite spices/herbs.  By the way, we've 
been doing this for the 41 years we've been married - it just make 
sense. In the early years he was in the Navy, then college, then the 
kids came along, changes in the economy, lay offs, etc. We have NEVER 
worried about where our next meal was coming from.

You should also only buy & store what your family will actually eat.  
Beans, except canned baked and canned kidney for chili, are not eaten 
in our household - and we've tried them every which way, so, we don't 
store them.  We do use honey and small amounts of sugar so we bought 
and are using 5 gallons of honey instead of white sugar.  We bought a 
"year's supply" of whole wheat and a grain mill.  Because of some 
required dietary changes (heart disease and pre-diabetes) our use of 
bread/flour products has been radically diminished so the grain will 
last more like 2 1/2-3 years.  I've been making bread, biscuits, 
muffins from scratch for the past 50 years so it's not new to me. We 
do have canned clams, crab, tuna and #10 cans of freeze dried sausage 
crumbles, roast beef cubes, turkey.  Yesterday I made chili with 
canned tomatoes, tomato powder freeze-dried, the roast beef & sausage, 
canned kidney beans, chili powder.  Cornmeal muffins, from WW flour, 
cornmeal, dried milk, dried eggs, honey, etc. completed the meal.  We 
use freeze dried fruit and oranges from the tree outside for dessert.

Storage of these foods is accomplished by using floor space in 
closets, under the bed, and using kitchen cabinets for survival foods 
in use. The kitchen cabinets are used for food, food prep and 
tableware - not decorative items, home office supplies, etc.

Why am I so opinionated about survival foods?  In 2004 my husband and 
I went thru Hurricane Charlie - we had sustained winds of about 145 
with higher wind gusts.  Two mobile home 55+ communities less than a 
mile away were almost completely destroyed, ours was about 50% 
destroyed.  We planned ahead, after all, you have 3-5 days of warning 
for a hurricane.  We stored water, cooked food, gathered our necessary 
paperwork, packed clothes, money, etc.  Our home had slight damage, 
the Red Cross approved shelter we were in for the hurricane didn't do 
as well.  If the water had not been turned off 10 days after the 
hurricane we would have stayed - we had a generator for electricity.  
Out of about 1000 units in our park, only 2 other couples we know of 
prepared at all.  The biggest problem - food & water.  Without 
electricity, grocery stores had to close, water & sewers don't work.
If we had stored the typical survival foods we would have been  in 
trouble - most residents of our park ate out 3 meals per day, for 
almost 6 weeks.  We don't have that kind of money and think more of 
our health than that.

My only disagreement with her opinions stems from the implication that there's one "best" way to store food. I think we all have to make decisions as to what works best for us. Her food plan will certainly keep her family well fortified; I suspect most advanced survival types would fully agree with her.

The point I've made in my posts over the years is that a good plan is customized to fit your lifestyle. Currently, we're not in a position to store what we eat in large quantities. If you are, that's fantastic. If you're not, then store what you can. It's better than nothing.

I Bet This Never Happens to AAA

The Shuttle astronauts lost their tool bag into outer space while repairing a solar panel. No joke.

This story serves as a good reminder. When we're doing the daily routines in life, take a moment to do them with fewer resources to see how well you adapt. I have some ideas on what I can do better in this area.

Let Detroit Go Bankrupt

Mitt Romney, the son of a automotive executive, weighs in on why we should not bail out the Big Three.

17 November 2008

Pricing and Sizing Staples

Following up on my 29 October post, we went to Sam's after dinner Saturday evening to price and size up bulk staple food items.

We analyze this project using three metrics:

• Acquisition costs
• Amount needed for a year's time
• Amount of space needed to store a year's worth of a particular product

To start this discussion, let's remind ourselves what Uncle Ragnar says a family of four needs for a year:

Five 50 pound sacks of sugar
Six 50 pound sacks of flour
Ten 25 pound sacks of cleaned, treated lentils
Ten 25 pound sacks of split peas
Ten 25 pound sacks of dried beans
Two 3 gallon jugs of vegetable oil
100 pounds of dried milk

We didn't find all of these items, but we did find a lot of them, plus a few others. I've captured what we discovered below:

• 250 pounds of sugar costs $17 and takes up approximately 1 cubic foot. For 250 pounds, we would need 15 cubic feet and $85.

• 25 pounds of flour costs $7 and takes up approximately 1 cubic foot. For 300 pounds of flour, we would need 12 cubic feet and $84. Flour has a shelf life of approximately 1 year.

• 50 pounds of pinto beans costs $32 and takes up approximately 2.3 cubic feet. For 250 pounds of beans, we would need 11.5 cubic feet and $160. Bagged pinto beans have a shelf life of less than a year.

• 4.5 pounds of powered milk costs $14 and takes up approximately 0.3 cubic feet. For 100 pounds of dried milk, we would need 22 cubic feet and $308. Powdered milk has a shelf life of one year.

• 1.25 gallons of vegetable oil costs $22 and takes up approximately 0.375 cubic feet. For 6 gallons of oil, we would need approximately 2 cubic feet and $105.

So, if you multiplied the beans by three (since Ragnar says to get three kinds of beans or peas above), it breaks down like this:

• 85.5 cubic feet of storage (which equates to 4.4 feet x 4.4 feet x 4.4 feet)
• $1,062 in acquisition costs

In addition, we found a few other items we would likely add as staples:

• 5 pounds of Bisquick costs $4 and takes up approximately 0.125 cubic feet. For 250 pounds of Bisquick, we would need 6.25 cubic feet and $200. Bisquick has a shelf life of approximately one year; however, I have some I have kept frozen for 5 years I recently tested which worked just fine.

• 50 pounds of rice costs $21 and takes up approximately 2.3 cubic feet. For 250 pounds of rice, we would need 11.5 cubic feet and $105.

• 3 pounds of canned chicken costs $8 and takes up approximately 0.6 cubic feet. For 50 pounds of chicken, we would need 30 cubic feet and $133. Note this is a very expensive proposition. For 4 people to get 6 ounces of chicken daily, we're talking $1,460.

These items add:

• 48 cubic feet of storage (which equates to 3.6 feet x 3.6 feet x 3.6 feet)
• $438 in acquisition costs

Finally, Kendel put together a list of a few other items of interest:

Green beans: 101 ounces in a can for $2.50. 3 year shelf life.
Pinto beans: 111 ounce can for $3. 3 year shelf life.
Special K cereal: 38 ounces, $8.28. 1 year shelf life.
Instant Oatmeal: 40 servings $10.00 2 year shelf life.
Multi-vitamins: 450 ct, $10.00. 1 year shelf life.

So for $1,500, we could squirrel away enough stuff to keep us alive and healthy for a year. If we were to double that amount of money, we could load up on extra chicken or other meats, as well as a variety of carbohydrates and fiber sources.

To be sure, $3,000 sounds like a lot of money. However, what if we were to donate our food stores every year, before they expire, to the local food bank? We would get a deduction as a charitable donation (thus subsidizing the purchase), help someone less fortunate, and then re-stock with fresh supplies.

We're still putting pen to paper to see if this would work. Our challenges now include:

• Finding 132 cubic feet of climate controlled space in the home to store this stuff.
• Determining what assistance agencies would take large bulk food staples for donations.

I think the first item will be more challenging. I will report back as I learn more.

15 November 2008

Spam Sales Up

As a kid, I could eat Spam. However, in the days following Hurricane Andrew, I cooked Spam in a skillet over a gas stove top. I vowed I would never eat it again.

Apparently, Spam sales are through the roof. I encourage you to read the article as it shows what people are stocking up on. The article implies people are buying up staples as a hedge against economic hard times, which may be true. Are people stocking up for something other than an economic slowdown? Who knows. But it's good to know people are getting better prepared for something.

I do keep Spam in our disaster supplies - as a "throw down" food. Someone comes to the door during a crisis, needing something to eat? They're getting Spam. It's not meant to be an insult - it's easy to store, loaded in protein, and relatively inexpensive to purchase.

Pushing the Envelope

I've been walking our dogs a fair amount lately. I've been pushing them (terrier mutts) to do at least two miles three to four times a week.

The other night, we did a two mile patrol in the rain with lightning and thunder. I told them it was good for them to train in adverse conditions.

So today, I took my own advice. I went to fly my airplane this morning. The winds were fairly strong - 19 miles per hour, gusting to 24 miles per hour. I decided today was a good day to practice landings in challenging winds.

I made five landings. Just as an experiment, I made all five as "no flap" landings. (For those of you who aren't pilots, flaps are those metal pieces that stick out of the back side of the wing during take off and landing. They generate lift so you can fly slower.)

I learned something really important. I've not been able to make smooth landings in my plane like I can in Cessna or Beech products. Apparently, using no flaps on landing may be the best way to land the plane after all.

More than likely, I wouldn't have figured that out if I hadn't decided to fly when everyone else said it wasn't a good day to do so. It's good to push ourselves from time to time in adverse conditions. We learn a lot and gain confidence by doing so.

So We Should Fear....Or Shouldn't We?

Yesterday afternoon, the Times Online from the U.K. reported "[British] security officials say that there is genuine concern that alQaeda will attempt a 'spectacular' in the transition period, but suggest that it may be aimed more at Mr Bush than Mr Obama." Yet in the next sentence, the source told the Times "As far as we know there is nothing from the intelligence world to indicate that anything has changed dramatically in recent months to put us on alert for an attack at the moment.”

So....which is it? Is our intelligence community worried about a specific threat or aren't they?

I fear it's 2002 all over again. Stories quoting high ranking government officials saying things like "While we don't have evidence of a particular threat, we do believe Al Qaeda is planning another attack on the U.S. in the coming days" filled the media a few years back. Such reports made terrorism forecasting less of a science (or art, for that matter) and more of a Psychic Friends Network approach to predicting terrorism.

I was just thinking earlier this evening - if President Bush had just shared some information about arrests or terrorist attacks thwarted in the U.S. - I suspect his approval rating would be through the roof right now. Of course, this assumes such information exists or such attacks were indeed thwarted. Part of convincing the American people for the need for a "War on Terror" includes showing us, from time to time, just what the threat is. We've not seen that.

Sadly, Americans in my opinion have a short term memory. We forget about those poor souls who jumped from the World Trade Center on 9/11 to escape the hell consuming their buildings, or the people on board those hijacked airliners. We forget about those soldiers and sailors who lost their lives at the Pentagon that morning. We're more concerned with gas prices and who Paris Hilton is dating than we are the security of our country.

You and I can't fix any of that. But we can be prepared to take care of our own if and when something bad happens.

Why Do I List GMT Time on My Homepage?

I suspect some may be wondering why I do this. Years ago, I had (and may still have for all I know) a growing readership in Europe and Africa. One devoted reader, Sergio from South Africa, routinely read my posts and emailed me regularly. Cliff and I even got a chance to chat with him online one afternoon years ago. (Sadly, as I reported on 24 August, Sergio passed away due to injuries in a motorcycle accident.)

People around the world know Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) as the world's central time zone. It refers to the Meridian of Greenwich, which is also called zero longtitude. This line runs through the London outskirts.

At any rate, GMT is used as a time reference point, from which we can all convert to our local time. Providing the information allows overseas readers to determine when the blog was last updated.

14 November 2008

Assemble Your Crew

There's a really funny Chappelle Show episode where they do a sketch about Prince. In the episode, Prince is hanging out with Eddie Murphy's brother, Charlie (who is a regular on the Chappelle Show). Prince and Eddie are going to go back to Prince's house to hang out. Prince (played by Dave Chappelle) tells Charlie it's time to head out by oddly saying "Assemble Your Crew."

Lately, as I talk to my neighbors, I have been mentally "assembling my crew" in the event of some sort of area wide disruption. In the past, I've taken the position it's better to just lock yourself in your home. However, the more I read and study on the subject, I think we'd be better off if we knew who "is one of us" so to speak.

So, who exactly is "one of us?" Characteristics I am looking for include:

• A healthy disdain for large government involvement in people's lives.
• Resourcefulness.
• Strong advocates for the right of gun ownership and self defense.
• An appetite for news - both local and global.
• Success in a given field, showing commitment and work ethic.
• Strong commitment to their family.

This Nation Voted for Obama

I found this on Rush Limbaugh's site. Take a good, hard look at this:

We could spend hours drawing conclusions from this. Some of mine include:

• The urban areas of our nation will have a growing influence on our national politics.
• Despite the tone you get from the media, America is not infatuated with Sen. Obama. In fact, 49% of the voters supported a weak candidate - from the incumbent party whose sitting president has a chronically severe approval rating problem - rather than supporting Sen. Obama.
• Thank God for the Electoral College. It gives Fly Over Country a powerful voice. Just ask Al Gore.
• Oklahoma, with all of its faults, managed to not concede a single county to Obama. Who said Sooners were stupid?
• If the GOP ever decides to be a conservative party again with charismatic leadership, it could easily take Washington back from the Democrats.

12 November 2008

Texans On Alert

I spend time in border town such as McAllen, TX and El Paso. In the past year, border towns have had a growing violent crime problem, especially on the Mexican side. Stratfor provides a very interesting analysis on the recent arrest of a Mexican gang leader.

Bill Gertz' New Book

I may ask for this book for Christmas unless I can get it at the local library soon.

Solar Oven

Another Christmas toy I may ask for is a solar oven. Any of you ever use one? Good idea or not?

5 November 2008

How We Respond to Obama's Election

I sat in front of the television Election Night, like many of you, wondering how our new Democratic president would affect our country. For years, the pro-freedom and pro-capitalism GOP held the White House and implemented policies helping our economy grow and creating opportunities for so many people to succeed.

Watching the President-elect's concession speech, I felt an uneasy feeling come over me. Should we fear a loss of our liberties? Higher taxes? A diminution of our our military strength? Economic stagnation? High unemployment?

That particular election night to which I am referring - back in 1992 - began an eight year run where the stock market made phenomenal gains (much of which were lost during the "tech bust") despite higher taxes and less liberty.

Take a deep breath, everyone. The world isn't going to end. At least not yet.

To be sure, Obama's election represents a new chapter in our nation's history. His huge support among white voters attests to our nation's willingness to accept a non-white as President. I hope our nation's racial minorities take comfort in this important fact. As a nation, we continue to move forward in race relations. And for that, I am thankful.

Here's what I think preppers should expect in the coming months:

• Higher taxes. This notion of a tax cut for 95% of the population is utter nonsense. Half of those people don't even pay federal income taxes. The only way this would work, in my opinion, is for the U.S. to increase its borrowing rate.
• Far reaching gun legislation. Such legislation would not only affect guns but ammunition and magazines as well.
• Stock market gains. During the first year of Democratic presidencies, the Dow on average goes up 6%. Given its recent losses, it has only one direction to go now. I suspect we will see a much larger increase than 6%. (Ironically, it only goes up about 3.5%, on average, during the first year of a GOP presidency.)
• Increased risk of a terrorist attack on American soil. The last two presidents faced terrorist attacks on U.S. soil during their first year in office (Clinton in the 1993 attacks on the World Trade Center; Bush in 2001 on 9/11). Note this particular point isn't a criticism of Obama; it is only an observation.
• Increased emphasis on solar and wind energy. One of the few, if not the only, good ideas Jimmy Carter had was to offer tax incentives to those who installed energy efficient technology in their homes. If Obama is true to his word and wants to increase our usage of renewable energy, we could see something similar. Such incentives could entice many preppers to install alternative energy set ups at their homes.

I am interested to hear your thoughts on this, and what you're doing in response to Obama's election.

Kendel's Reading Hoag

I referenced Philip Hoag's book the other night. Kendel needed some reading material to put her to sleep the other night (no joke), and so she elected to start reading "There's No Such Thing As Doomsday." She got several ideas on what we need to be doing now. I told her she should read the entire book, and then we should sit down and prioritize what we need to buy and what we need to do.

Paul T. Martin Survivalist Play of the Day

Damn. That's hard core.

4 November 2008

More on Food Storage

As I mentioned on 29 October, I am re-thinking my food storage plan. Last Sunday, I perused the dried beans section of my local grocery. Dried beans are very inexpensive, quite nutritious (providing 7 to 9 grams of protein per serving; your RDA is 50 grams), and easy to store.

I haven't put pen to paper yet (or keyboard to spreadsheet), but my plan is to buy this stuff and store it, carefully tracking the expiration date. As that date approaches, we would donate the food to local charities who receive bulk food donations. So we get a food storage plan with adequate rotation, the less fortunate get nutritious food, and we get a tax write off in the process. I need for my wife the accountant to run the numbers and come up with a workable plan.

So How Do We Cook Said Stored Food?

First, we must assume in a crisis situation we won't have electricity. In wintertime in Texas, it's an inconvenience, but without AC in the summer it's brutal. Then again, people around the world still live without air conditioning.

I am more concerned with the need for energy to cook and purify water. One great option for us, I am thinking, is a solar oven. I'm starting to research this in earnest. They are relatively inexpensive and apparently work quite well with a little practice.

4 November 2008

I'm Rich!

I perused my survival library this evening and found a classic - No Such Thing As Doomsday by Philip Hoag. I learned a lot from this book, and I think you will too.

So I decided to put the Amazon link up to the book in case you wanted to buy it....only to see the book is now selling for freaking $90! I might have paid $20 for it back in 2001. Is there a run on survival books? If so, screw the stock market. My personal library just became my 401K.

Peggy Joseph - Nobel Prize Candidate for Excellence in Economics and Political Science

If only Einstein had been half as smart as this lady. Since when did it become the role of the government to put gas in our cars and pay our mortgages? Of course, John McCain would have you believe the same thing.

3 November 2008

WHAT?

If any of you figure out what this means, please let me know.

30 October 2008

Cloward-Piven For Fun and Profit

I suggest you read this article. It's a bit heady, but it will give you a blue print into the next four years, barring a GOP replay of the 1994 Congressional election.

Neighborhood Watch for Halloween

I've organized a neighborhood watch for Friday night. I will report back this weekend if we have anything of signficance happen.

Rednecks for Obama

As I previously posted, Little Brother is the Tennessee Director of the Obama campaign. He sent me this picture, which I thought was hilarious:

29 October 2008

Cooler Weather + Uncertain Economy + Strongly Likelihood of Democratic Control of Washington = X

You can determine what "X" means to you. Here's what it means to me:

• A great time to buy stocks. See my previous posts. However, we should not expect the kinds of growth in the stock market we've seen in the past.
• A threat to our liberties. Memphis Jeff provided an article quoting Obama and Biden on their belief guns are bad. Further, regardless of who wins the election, watch for goverment spending to grow exponentially. This undoubtedly will burden American taxpayers for years to come.
• Cooler weather reminds people of what's coming - winter time. Fall always motivates me to get prepared. I think it's an innate response.
• A renewed focus on personal finance. I like to think I do a good job on this, but when you're married to a CPA, it's a daily discussion. I like that.
• Speaking of guns and my wife, it also means people are flocking to get their concealed handgun licenses, first time gun purchases, extra gun purchases, and ammo purchases. She will attend her CHL class in December.

Food Storage Plan Ideas

Simply put, we need more food stored up.

I ran across Ragnar Benson's suggested food storage shopping list, which is quite simple:

Five 50 pound sacks of sugar
Six 50 pound sacks of flour
Ten 25 pound sacks of cleaned, treated lentils
Ten 25 pound sacks of split peas
Ten 25 pound sacks of dried beans
Two 3 gallon jugs of vegetable oil
100 pounds of dried milk

According to his 2000 book, Ragnar's Urban Survival, this shopping list should cost about $537. Benson claims this food list will provide basic sustenance, supplemented occasionally from the field and garden, for a family of four for one year. To be sure, eating this daily for a year would get old in the first week; bear in mind it's called "survival" and not "dining at Chili's."

I want to start working on this ASAP. The first trick, however, will be finding where to store this stuff in the house.

Bocephus Has Spoken

Hank Williams, Jr. makes a key endorsement. Act accordingly.

28 October 2008

Preparedness Tutorial Back Up

The tutorial on preparedness is now accessible. I hope it helps someone.

Today's Suggested Quick Read

When MSNBC isn't telling us how freaking awesome Obama is, they're writing about survivalists.

26 October 2008

Squirrels and Wooly Worms

Dad's always been big on reading the wooly worms- those fuzzy little worms which are tan and black. Each fall, the wooly worms come out in various shades. Dad says that if you start from the head and move to the tail, observing the colors in the worm's coat, you can determine what sort of winter we're going to have. For example, if a worm has a long brown patch (warm) in the front, a short brown patch in the rear, with a black (cold) patch in between, it means much of the early winter will be warm, followed by a cold snap, then followed by a warm up.

He says it's been fairly reliable as a way to predict winter temperatures. He recalls one fall where all he saw were black wooly worms, and the winter following that was brutally cold.

I don't see many wooly worms in Texas, but I have seen more squirrels this fall than ever. And they are all burying nuts at a frantic pace. I am not sure what's gotten into them - I've never seen them work at this pace before, nor so many of them running around. Could it be a sign of a cold winter? We'll see.

Study of Mormonism

Our Sunday School class is doing a comparative religions study. We just finished Islam, which was fantastic. I learned a tremendous amount about Islam, and we even had an Imam from a local mosque come and speak to us. He then joined our class for Sunday brunch at our home, so we had a great opportunity to talk to him about the tenets of his faith.

We just started Mormonism today. I am interested in this study, primarily because a) those in the faith whom I've met seem quite happy and fit, and b) Mormons are really into preparedness. Check out this link to read more about their philosophy.

21 October 2008

Hi-larious

I hadn't planned on blogging tonight, but I couldn't pass this one up. As many of you know, I serve as the Traffic and Safety Chair for my neighborhood association, in which membership is voluntary. The Austin Police Department sent out an email about one of their upcoming community meetings, where APD leadership meets with citizens to discuss crime and police issues in our community.

I fowarded the email to the membership, simply commenting concerned citizens should attend. Within a few minutes, I got this response:

After reading all of the panicky e-mails about the state of what is portrayed as our “High Crime” neighborhood I am getting very tired of all the negative communications.  We have live in this neighborhood for over 23 years and I have not developed the impression that we live in a crime ridden neighborhood.  After reading the past years’ communications one would think we really need the street search lights, corner guard towers, and neighborhood posies to canvas the neighborhood.  I even recall an e-mail suggesting that we all get handgun carry licenses so we can deal with the occasional youth that toilet paper a neighbors tree.

Now we feel we need to have neighborhood meetings at Commander’s Forms with the APD to help define our strategy and incite even further fear mongering.  I am also tired of hearing the numerous reports of occasional car break vandalism, or home vandalism that has happened in neighborhoods not even remotely close to our neighborhood.  If it didn’t happen in a 5 block radius of our neighborhood I don’t want to hear about it, it only confuses and further perpetuates the distorted image that we live in a high crime area.

Please remove me from further communications on these subjects.  I don’t know what neighborhood you feel you live in, but the neighborhood I live in is pretty decent.

I am still laughing.

20 October 2008

The Scandal on Page 46

For those of you who get the NRA's First Freedom magazine, take a look at page 46 of the November issue. Specifically, look at the rounds in the belt. Some believe (it may be true, although I am not an expert), that the black tipped round is actually an armor piercing round....something you would not fire out of a six gun.

I've heard several people around town and at work comment about this. I'm not sure if there's a hidden meaning to the ad or not, but it's interesting to say the least.

Pepper Spray Pros and Cons

Atlanta Jeff asked a great question today about using chemical sprays for self defense. Here are my thoughts:

Pros - you can take it a lot of places you can't take a gun. Plus its easy to use & requires little training.

Cons- its nothing you'd want to bet your life on. Many people aren't affected by it.  It has a shelf life which isn't always predictable.

Bottom line - its better than nothing, but not by much. I would steer you towards carrying a good folding knife (I carry one daily) which with a bit of training can really help you turn the tables on an uncomfortable situation.

 

Global Warming. Not.

Many of you saw this, I suspect. If the trend continues, whatever will Al Gore do? I wouldn't be surprised that in ten years from now, we unilaterally declare the global warming war officially over.

19 October 2008

Suggested Readings

It's been a very busy week for me, having been on the road two nights this past week and hosted two different get togethers at our home this weekend. So I haven't had much time to blog, despite the fact there's so much to talk about. I am playing catch up today, so for now I want to leave you with a couple of articles.

First, thanks to Seven State Johnny (because he's licensed to pratice law in seven states, raising questions about his sanity) for this article from CNN on Ron Paul's take on TARP.

How would things look with an Obama win and a Democratic Capitol Hill? The Wall Street Journal does a great job laying it out for us in this piece.

Finally, thanks to Atlanta Jeff for sharing this NYT op-ed piece from Warren Buffet, below:

Buy American. I Am.

13 October 2008

Training the Next Generation of Preppers

This afternoon, I left work a few minutes early to help my step daughter's Girl Scout troop out with its monthly activity. I led an exercise where the girls pretended to be stuck on a deserted island, and they had to come up with a list of five things they would want to help them survive.

Some did fairly well, while others struggled a bit. I encouraged them to think about their basic needs, both short and long term. Hopefully, they got something out of it.

What the World Goverments Did This Past Weekend

Whatever it was, the stock markets certainly approved. Stratfor weighs in with its analysis.

12 October 2008

Another View On the Economy

I don't normally quote from the New York Times, but given the fact the writer interviewed Ken Heebner, I found it quite compelling. Enjoy your Sunday -

Those Who Know History May See a Time to Invest

By ALEX BERENSON

The four most dangerous words for investors are: This time is different.

In 1999, technology companies with no earnings or sales were valued at billions of dollars. But this time was different, investors told themselves. The Internet could not be missed at any price.

They were wrong. In 2000 and 2001 technology stocks plunged, erasing trillions of dollars in wealth.

Now investors have again convinced themselves that this time is different, that the credit crisis will push economies worldwide into the deepest recession since the Depression. Fear runs even deeper today than greed did a decade ago.

But in their panic, investors are ignoring 60 years of history. Since the Depression, governments have become far more aggressive about intervening when credit markets seize up or economies struggle. And those interventions have generally succeeded. The recessions since World War II, while hardly easy, have been far less painful than the Depression.

Now some veteran investors, including G. Kenneth Heebner, a mutual fund manager who has one of the best long-term track records on Wall Street, say that the sell-off has gone much too far and stocks are poised to rally powerfully if the downturn is less severe than investors fear.

“The fact is, there are a lot of tremendous bargains out there,” said Mr. Heebner, who manages about $10 billion in several mutual funds. Indeed, by many measures stocks are as cheap as they have been in the last 25 years.

He pointed to Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas producer that he owns in his CGM Focus mutual fund. In July, Chesapeake traded for $63 a share. On Friday, it fell as low as $11.99.

He says that investors with a stomach for risk and a long time horizon should consider following Warren E. Buffett, who in the last three weeks has invested $8 billion in Goldman Sachs and General Electric.

Mr. Heebner expects world economies to contract over the next year. But he said the market plunge in the last week was no longer being driven by rational analysis. Stocks are probably falling because of a combination of panic and forced selling by hedge funds that must meet margin calls from their lenders, he said.

Mr. Heebner’s funds have not avoided the carnage this year. The CGM Focus fund is down about 42 percent so far in 2008. But his long-term track record is impressive. In the decade that ended Dec. 31, 2007, CGM Focus rose 26 percent a year, including reinvested dividends, making it among the best-performing mutual funds.

Mr. Heebner is not alone in his optimism.

“I think in years to come — I wouldn’t say months to come — we will perceive this as being a great value-buying opportunity,” said David P. Stowell, a finance professor at Northwestern and a former managing director at JPMorgan Chase. “Two and three years from now, it will seem very smart.”

Even before their jaw-dropping plunge of the last month, stocks were not expensive by historical standards, based on fundamentals like earnings and cash flow. Now, after falling 30 percent or more since early September, stocks in stalwart, profitable corporations like Nokia, Exxon Mobil and Boeing are trading at nine times their annual profits per share or less. Many smaller companies are even cheaper. Some of those stocks are trading at five times earnings or less.

Those ratios are historically low. Over all, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index is trading at about 13 times its expected profits for 2009, its lowest level in decades. In contrast, at the height of the technology bubble in early 2000, the stocks in the S.& P. traded at about 30 times earnings, the highest level ever. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury bond paid about 6 percent interest, compared with less than 4 percent today.

Investors have fled stocks in favor of government bonds, insured bank deposits and other low-risk investments because they are deeply afraid of the worldwide economic crisis, said Stephen Haber, an economic historian and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. But he said he believed that fear might have gone too far.

“If there is good and wise policy, and government moves effectively, this need not play itself out in ways like the Great Depression, which is the image that is playing itself out in people’s mind,” Mr. Haber said. Government action typically does not work immediately, and banking crises around the world often require multiple interventions, he said.

Still, optimists remain in the minority on Wall Street. Most investors seem to believe that the credit crisis will do substantial damage to stocks and overall economic activity.

“We have never before seen for such sustained periods of time such a sustained turn away from risk taking,” said Steven Wieting, the chief United States economist for Citigroup. “This has broken out of the boundaries we’ve seen.” Economic activity appears to have slowed sharply in September, Mr. Wieting said.

The panic last week took the biggest toll on financial companies, as well as companies that are highly leveraged. But stocks fell 10 to 30 percent even for companies typically thought to be resistant to economic downturns, like the manufacturers of consumer staples.

For example, Newell Rubbermaid fell to $12.82 on Friday from $17.34 on Oct. 1, a 26 percent decline in 10 days. Newell Rubbermaid now trades at its lowest levels since 1990, and just eight times its expected earnings for next year.

Yet Newell Rubbermaid, whose brands include Calphalon, is profitable and insulated from the credit crisis, said William G. Schmitz Jr., who follows household products companies for Deutsche Bank. “There’s really no balance sheet risk,” Mr. Schmitz said. The company also pays a 6 percent dividend.

Newell Rubbermaid said in July that it would earn $1.40 to $1.60 a share for 2008, excluding restructuring charges. For 2009, stock analysts predict it will make $1.53 a share. And while a slowing economy may mean that people will be buying fewer products from Newell Rubbermaid, the recent plunge in oil prices will reduce its costs, Mr. Schmitz said.

“The way the stock’s reacted, you’d think they were going out of business,” he said.

Martin J. Whitman, a professional investor for more than 50 years, said that as long as economies worldwide could avoid an outright depression, stocks were amazingly cheap. Mr. Whitman manages the $6 billion Third Avenue Value fund, which returned 10.2 percent annually for the 15 years that ended Sept. 30, almost two percentage points a year better than the S.& P. 500 index. The fund is down 46 percent this year.

“This is the opportunity of a lifetime,” Mr. Whitman said. “The most important securities are being given away.”

11 October 2008

A New Era

I submit we're living in yet another brand new era. Here's why:

1. The American people now realize irrational consumerism can kill our economy. Consumerism is good in many respects. It spawns innovations and improves the quality of our lives - no question. But easy credit and low introductory payment terms seduced consumers to overextend themselves financially. As a result, the housing market faltered (which rarely happens, further panicking the public), banks holding their mortgages suffered, credit markets in turn responded negatively, culminating in a plummeting equities market.

Many of you know I sell real estate part time. Recently, I read an article in one of the monthly trade journals heralding the return of "compliance" in mortgage lending. From now on, lenders will have to comply with strict guidelines, including such draconian rules as "you must have a job," and "you need to put at least 10% down," and "you need a decent credit score."

When you read these so called "new" rules (which, as you know, aren't all that new), there's no doubt in my mind people will realize their irrational consumerism and irresponsible spending got America into this position. This lax attitude towards spending by Americans is mirrored by our government. The Feds mandated irresponsible mortgage lending via the Community Investment Act (a Ted Kennedy bill which the Clinton Administration used as a Taser, threatening to zap banks who refused to lend to people who couldn't pay the loans back).

But we cannot lay all of the blame on Kennedy and Clinton, or the government for that matter. Banks and businesses extending consumer credit profited from easy credit, encouraging consumers to live beyond their means. In short, the government threatened banks, who made up for bad loans by selling them as complex packaged investments to investors world wide, to feed the addiction of American consumers. Wall Street supplied the heroin - money for mortgage lending - and the American people gleefully injected it into its collective arms, while Democrats in Washington looked the other way.

2. Despite the spread of capitalism, many superpowers haven't bought into world peace. One of the great lessons of the second Iraq War is that freedom does not beget freedom. History will eventually prove or disprove this, but if I had to guess, I would submit Iraq will eventually move away from U.S. imposed democracy and back to some sort of dictatorship or theocracy.

Of course, we've seen other signs of that as well. As China and Russia embraced capitalism, they have not felt a need to contract their military spending or expansion. Rather, both countries test long range missiles regularly, and Russia recently invaded Georgia to "liberate" its people (who, ironically were living with a democratic government).

Back in the Eighties, Reagan often said the best way to instill freedom in these countries was to introduce capitalism to them. We did just that, but the "peace dividend" we discussed ad nauseam in the Nineties after the Cold War never seemed to materialize. We replaced Cold War planning with anti-terrorism planning.

To date, our national defense system remains inadequate to fend off a missile attack. I suspect most Americans don't believe there is a risk of such an attack; regretfully, many experts disagree. Further, nations like Russia with strong links to terrorism sponsors could conceivably supply them with nuclear supplies and technology to inflict damage on us here in the U.S.

In my discussions with people on this, many ask "what's in it for those nations do that? Why would China attack the U.S., its largest customer base for cheaply made Chinese products?" We ask questions like this, I suspect, because we fail to truly understand the motivation of these nations. These nations are motivated to become as strong or stronger than the U.S.; they are NOT motivated to be our allies or even friends. Our economy provides them with a means to strengthen their own economies and military, as they strive to become the biggest kid on the planet.

In short, we will always have dangerous risks abroad - be it from terrorism or other large national actors. The sooner we grasp that concept, the better off we will be.

3. Economic fears at home cause American politicians to adopt more socialist type policies. Let's face it - in this presidential election, we are not selecting between a Republican or Democrat. We are choosing between two candidates promoting their own trademark brand of socialism. Obama wants to raise taxes on the achievers in America; McCain wants the government to become America's mortgage company. Obama wants to create a national health care system, which according to health care policy expert Robert Laszweski would "actually increase the rate of health care inflation and ultimately create an imperative for more draconian government intervention in the health care markets both Obama and Clinton would preserve." McCain, despite his claims he dislikes earmarks, votes for bills with them, and thus often supports more government spending and limits on freedom.

I fear the American people, out of desperation and because neither party offers a candidate with any solution other than government intervention into our lives, will elect candidates who fear individual liberty and promote larger government.

So if we don't like this, what can we do? Here are my thoughts:

• Strengthen your personal balance sheets. Eliminate all unnecessary debts and live within your means. Prepare as though Medicare and Social Security will be non-existent at retirement. Plan to retire later in life. After all, why should 65 be the magic retirement age? We are living longer lives; plan to be productive and contributing to the economy (and not a drain on the system or your family) beyond 65.
• Prepare for uncertain times. I made a decision earlier this week to completely scrap all of my preparedness plans and start over. Now that I am married, with a stepchild, living in the suburbs, my situation has changed dramatically. Fortunately, my wife agrees we need to prepare (she's put Ragnar's Urban Survival on her reading list). This doesn't necessarily mean all of you need to run out and buy guns and MREs. It does mean you need to think through and plan for the possibility of infrastructure failure due to a number of possible causes.
• Encourage elected officials - as well as friends and neighbors - to stress personal responsibility in our public policy and consumer decisions. It's not up to our employers or the government to provide us with healthcare and retirement funds - it is up to us. Our founding fathers believed this, creating a blueprint for a government which inherently limited itself to a few basic functions, leaving citizens to their own devices to take care of their own needs and to advance humanity.

We live in the greatest country on earth, and I believe we are blessed by God with that privilege. Daily, hundreds of people from Mexico and Central America leave their homes and families, often risking their lives to come here to do the crap work our welfare recipients won't....for a few bucks a day. When I see these individuals, I'm humbled to think how richly blessed we are. Through these times, let's remember it's up to us as stewards of that blessing to preserve it for our children.

09 October 2008

A Mere 679 Points

Are you panicked? I hope not.

The Dow dropped precipitously today. Until the credit markets get their sea legs, we are likely to see more of this.

Here's the inside tip - watch the TED spread and the LIBOR rates. As those numbers get smaller, the more likely we will see stocks start to rebound. You heard it here first.

Test Your Knowledge

Fire Prevention Week always gives us good reason to refresh our knowledge. Keep an eye on these things as you make your home safer.

08 October 2008

Brief Updates

It's been busy this week....but I want to share a few things with you.

First, if you're scratching your head over the new financial speak you're hearing on the news, check out this short glossary of common financial terms you're hearing lately. It's quite helpful.

Second, Little Brother is mentioned in this "special investigative report" in a Nashville television news broadcast.

Also, I am hearing from several sources that many people continue flocking to survival/preparedness type of websites. These are "foul weather" friends. Start doing the basics now.

I will try to blog more this weekend.

03 October 2008

Y'all Suck

I think I've figured this economic mess all out. YOU are the problem.

The largest car dealership in the South closed its doors recently because YOU couldn't get loans to buy cars. CNBC reported on a sod farm in Florida going through tough times because YOU can't buy a home (and thus need new sod) because YOU can't get the loan to purchase that home.

Of course, some of YOU can still manage to get a mortgage, provided YOU have good credit and a down payment. I got an email today from my local Ford dealer offering Texas sized discounts on all sorts of great new vehicles, which YOU can take advantage of....if YOU have decent credit.

So because so many of YOU have crappy credit, our economy can't function. Well done, America.

For me, the most troubling aspect of this bailout mess - aside from the fact it's chocked full of earmarks - is that it highlights how the American economy really works. As long as we can buy crap on credit - most of it stuff we don't need - our economy does well. But as soon as the country overextends itself financially, the panic lights come on.

Friends, this bailout package is a band aid on a larger problem. The American people simply must learn to use credit wisely and responsibly. To be sure, we need to figure out a way to keep Americans from going into bankruptcy due to unpaid medical expenses - the number one reason for bankruptcy filings. Until we do that, our sovereignty is in jeopardy.

And Yes, I Do Read Books From Time To Time

But not often. Cliff suggested I read a novel (okay, I admit - I NEVER read fiction) written by James Wesley Rawles, the proprietor of the Survival Blog. His book, Patriots - Surviving the Coming Collapse contains a plethora of survival information. The characters go into excruciating detail explaining their training, philosopy and preparedness tips. The book represents an excellent use of andragogy (the theory that adults learn best from real life examples) in educating readers on preparedness strategies. I will tell you it's hard to put it down. It can be a bit depressing at times, as well, as it deals with life after a complete economic collapse of the United States.

It's been weird reading it during the recent economic turmoil. But I do encourage you to read it. You'll learn a lot.

02 October 2008

The Yuppie Survivalist

01 October 2008

Is al Qaeda Getting Stronger or Weaker?

McCain and Obama debated this issue last week. Here's Stratfor's analysis.

Liberals Say Minorities, GEDs and Dropouts Are "Idiots" to Be Educated.

We all knew they thought that...and now here's proof. Share with others.

30 September 2008

Preparedness 101

All right. I promised I would walk you through the steps of basic preparedness. If I were going to start all over from scratch, and assuming I knew nothing about preparedness, I would read two books. First, I would read "Crisis Preparedness Handbook" by Jack A. Spigarelli. I would then read "Ragnar's Urban Survival" by Ragnar Benson. I read Benson's "The Survival Retreat" when I was 10 years old.

If you want to read something really, really basic which is FREE - order "Are You Ready? An In-Depth Guide to Citizen Preparedness" from FEMA's website.

29 September 2008

Simmah Dahn Nah!

Remember that Saturday Night Live bit with Cheri O'Teri, where she played this cajun sounding woman who would tell people to "simmer down now" when they would get all uppity with her? Of course, her character had an accent which made it sound more like "simmah dahn nah!"

Watching and listening to cable news and talk radio this afternoon and evening reminded me of O'Teri's bit. We all need to take a collective breath and remember a few things.

First, I will go out on a limb here - I don't believe we are on the verge of some economic armegeddon. As much as I would like to get out my glowsticks, wind up radios, MREs and other survival gear, it won't be for this event. Warren Buffett would not be buying large stakes of Goldman Sachs, Citi would not be buying Wachovia, and JP Morgan would not be buying WaMu if the end was near. No way.

Did you know you can still get a 30 year fixed mortgage for 6%? Yet to hear the experts tell it, credit has dried up and we'll all start bartering for food soon.

Did you know only 8% - that's right, only 8% - of home mortgages in Texas are of the "subprime" description? I read that today in the Texas Association of Realtors magazine. Put another way, 92% of Texas home mortgages are with people with decent credit, income and sufficient down payment. To hear the media tell it, you'd think half of America has a subprime mortgage.

I'm not saying we don't have issues in front of us. But articles like this and this, spurred by Wall Street Journal editors, do nothing but promote unnecessary panic.

And people are panicking. I am hearing reports people are starting to stock up on precious metals, extra food, etc. Folks, there's a time and place to prepare, and a right way to do it.....but doing it during a panic is not the best idea.

Yes, I could be wrong. But I figure I've got a 50/50 chance here. There are too many things going well for our economy for the doomsday sayers to be right.

In the coming days, I will outline some ideas on how I would prepare if I had to do it all over.

26 September 2008

Trip to Houston

I spent much of this week in Houston. Cliff and I had a good dinner meeting to discuss possible threats to the U.S. We agree an EMP burst is the greatest threat we face here in the U.S.

Lots of plywood sheets have replaced windows in the high rise offices spaces around Houston. Many are still without power but are showing up for work to keep the city humming.

I hope to blog a bit more on Sunday.

22 September 2008

Information Overload

These days, I come home and sit in front of the computer, trying to decipher all of the day's news stories. These days, it seems my brain ends up playing Dance Dance Revolution (that arcade game where you try to step on the squares as the illuminate in the right order).

First, the markets. A third of the articles are just gloom and doom, another third, like this one, debate who's at fault for this mess, and the last third analyze the options on how to get us out of it.

Then there's the presidential race. Most of the main stream media hates Palin and her family, McCain is a nutjob, and Obama is the messiah. Whatever.

And then there's the threat of terrorism. Thanks to Jeff in Atlanta for the heads up on this one.

No Gas in Nashville

I am not an Obama supporter. However, I will concede one thing where I think his ideas are superior to other candidates - our need to improve our infrastructure. Senator Obama has been quite vocal, for some time, about our need to improve infrastructure.

The lack of gasoline in places like Nashville (where Little Brother lives) exemplifies our infrastructure problems. Roads, bridges, railways, airports, electrical grid and generation systems need improvement.

And Whom Do I Support in the Presidential Race?

I am trying to get psyched up about McCain. In the primaries, I pulled the lever for Ron Paul. It looks like McCain has Texas in the bag, so I will likely support Bob Barr this election. This is the first time I've voted for someone other than a Republican for President.

I felt a bit odd about my voting plan, but today talk show host Neil Boortz announced he plans to do the same thing. I suspect many conservatives will do the same thing.

On a side note, I am proud to say Little Brother is running point for Obama's efforts in Tennessee now. It's a great honor for him as well as an opportunity to develop his skills and make more contacts. If Obama wins, I hope Little Brother gets to be an ambassador somewhere tropical so I can visit him.

19 September 2008

A Long Week

On Monday afternoon, a co-worker and I left Austin for Dallas. We provided several hours of legal training to catastrophe claims adjusters our company hired to help out in Houston and Galveston.

We stayed in a hotel designed for long term trips - it had a nice kitchenette, huge bathroom and two televisions. My co-worker got the nicer of the two rooms, as he had something akin to a little conference room in his place.

Here are a series of completely random thoughts and observations over the past few days:

• Our hotel overfloweth with evacuees from Ike and Gustav. We overheard them talking about how FEMA (that's you and me, by the way) was paying for their stay. They'd sit in the lobby all day or outside, smoking and drinking cheap beer and otherwise doing little. That would drive me nuts. I would have been at the local Wal Mart asking for a job just to give me something to do.
• The Federal Goverment's (again, that's you and me) 80% equity stake in AIG Insurance made me feel richer. How about you?
• The Federal Goverment's (we be them) decision to buy every crappy loan, collaterized debt obligation, bottle cap collection and other useless asset Thursday night underscores the notion we are on the bullet train to socialism, and the throttle is stuck in the wide open position.
• Remember when I blogged about CNBC madman Jim Cramer's head exploding back in August? Turns out he was right on. Who knew?
• Joe Biden says it's patriotic to pay more taxes. Thank God he wasn't at the Boston Tea Party.
• The IRS announced its hit parade of statistics once again proving the achiever class gets the shaft in America. For example:
  • The richest 1% pay 40% of all federal income taxes.
  • The 45% of people at the bottom of the pay scale pay no federal income tax.
  • The 50% of people at the bottom of the pay scale pay 3% of the federal income tax.
  Think about that - almost half of the citizens in the U.S. pay no federal taxes for the services of which, arguably, they are the greatest consumers.
• Another tropical disturbance threatens the Gulf. Wonder if those who stayed in Galveston will be dumb enough to try that again?
• "Fine Mexican Dining" is an oxymoron. My co-worker chose some fru-fru Mexican place in Irving/Grapevine/South Dallas (the Metroplex all looks alike to me....I have no idea exactly where we were) on Monday night and the food was wretched. If they haven't failed a health department inspection in the last three years, don't waste your time or money by going there.

14 September 2008

The Aftermath

As most of you have seen, Ike created catastrophic damage in Galveston and Houston. Those folks are getting a real time tutorial on living without infrastructure.

I ran across this handy link of ham radio frequencies. I am picking up a fair amount of traffic on 7290 kHz LSB. The radio operators are trying to track down their buddies in the affected areas.

My neighbor across the street is heading to La Marque - near Galveston - tomorrow morning. He's borrowing some fuel cans from us to ensure he has adequate range there and back. Gas shortages along the way necessitate taking fuel with you.

I've also been listening to KTRH 740 AM in Houston. People are calling in, complaining the government isn't doing enough to take care of them. I shouldn't be surprised by that, but after Katrina you would think people would learn not to rely on the government to meet their needs after a major hurricane or other disaster.

I'm also tracking the breaking business news on Lehman Brothers, AIG and Merrill Lynch. It's not good to say the least. We need to stay aware of what's going on in our financial markets - what's happened this evening is unprecedented.

13 September 2008

10:30 AM

12 September 2008

10:30 PM

Today's Events

Today was fairly typical in Austin - sunny skies, a few clouds - except for the incessant coverage of Ike.

We look to be in good shape in Austin tonight. We are expecting winds gusting to 50 mph with some heavy rains, but we're on the west side of the storm. So I don't expect anything here like what's going on in Galveston.

I did play with my shortwave receiver at lunch. One ham operator conducted a net check in on 7.290. He broadcasted from northwestern Arkansas loud and clear. I really do need to upgrade my ham radio license. It can really come in handy during a disaster.

I also got out the battery powered Coleman lantern I got from my employer's annual "Select-a-gift" program a few years ago. I'd never used it until last night. It runs on 8 D batteries and has a remote control. It puts out a decent amount of light. I moved it into our storm closet in the event we have to evacuate into it.

A while ago, I took the dogs on a combat patrol of our neighborhood. Not sure what's so "combat" or "patrol" about it, but it sounds good to the two little lap dogs who live here. Foxy hates severe weather - so they won't be sleeping in the laundry room tonight.

I will be going to bed soon - I figure the storm will wake me up in a few hours. I will blog off and on throughout the day and reporting what's happening here. Pray for those in the Galveston and Houston area - they've got it rough tonight.

11 September 2008

10:00 PM

Last Minute Preps

I told Kendel we should run some laundry lest we lose power and need clean clothes. So we're running a couple of loads tonight.

The models seem to be holding, putting the storm into Houston and Galveston. We're still forecasted to get some really strong winds on Saturday.

8:00 PM

That Beer Looter Guy

Remember this guy from New Orleans? Wonder if he's in Houston now.

You know these folks are in Galveston as we speak.

Storm Drills Complete

In the event the 10 year old does not go to her father's tomorrow, she needs to know what to do if severe weather strikes here. We ran storm drills this evening, simulating a power outage. She had to get out of bed, get her flashlight, run downstairs into our bedroom, wake us up, then run into the storm closet, turn on the weather radio, and assume crash positions. She ran the first drill in 24 seconds and the second drill in 17 seconds. She is more prepared for a severe weather event than the majority of adults in our county, I am willing to bet.

6:45 PM CDT

Ike Will Rename Corpus Christi Galveston "Tina Turnerville"

Props to Scotty in my office (our department's new Business Continuity Coordinator, having inherited the job from me after I went on the Crisis Management Team). He ran across a quote Dr. Jeff Masters, the Weather Underground blogger, found from the National Weather Service office for Galveston:

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

(emphasis mine).

What Am I Doing To Prepare?

Thanks to all who've emailed to check on us. We're in good shape, I hope, for the storm. We've got enough food, water purification supplies, gasoline for the chain saw, etc.

I'll start monitoring the hurricane net tonight. For those of you with shortwave radios, try picking it up on 14.325 MHz.

Speaking of ham radio, I will also start monitoring two meter traffic (for you non hams, that's the high frequency bands used for local communications) for local storm reports. We're told to expect gusts in excess of 50 mph. So I suspect we could lose power at some point, although the outages will be in pockets.

Schools are on early release tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if our office doesn't close early tomorrow as well. There's a chance I will need to take the 10 year old to Blanco to meet her dad for the weekend. Ideally, we'd do this in early afternoon rather than waiting until the usual 6pm pick up time.

10 September 2008

Ike Will Rename Corpus Christi "Tina Turnerville"

I've been in Dallas the last couple of days, so I've been away from the blog. But I've paid close attention to the track of Ike, which apparently will be in Austin Saturday afternoon at cat 2 strength.

I made a quick run to the local grocery story this afternoon, picking up a few last minute top off items. I've got to make another run tonight for a few items I missed, but all in all we're in good shape, I hope.

As the storm progresses, I will blog more on what I'm hearing and doing.

7 September 2008

National Preparedness Month

As we are days away from the anniverary of 9/11, it's appropriate to observe National Preparedness Month.

6 September 2008

Anything is possible these days. First, John McCain picks a little known governor for his veep choice, putting the Obama camp into panic mode. Second, Vanderbilt beats 24th ranked South Carolina Thursday night. And now, it looks like Hurricane Ike won't hit Florida, but rather may come towards the Louisiana/Texas coast:

Let's continue to track this currently Cat 4 storm.

2 September 2008

Put "Prepare for Race War" On Your To Do Lists

I fully understand we're in the middle of a hotly contested presidential race. Yet some in the media have allowed their emotions from the race to spill over into their writings.

Consider Fatimah Ali. In typical class warfare fashion, Ms. Ali writes "If McCain wins, look for a full-fledged race and class war, fueled by a deflated and depressed country, soaring crime, homelessness - and hopelessness!"

Lovely.

An Obama Supporter's Assessment of the Sarah Palin Pick

Outspoken Obama supporter Mr. Sean Combs assesses Sen. McCain's choice of Governor Palin in this video. I must warn you of the graphic language in it.

In short, Mr. Combs laments Sen. McCain's choice of vice presidential candidate, noting "There's not even no crackheads in Alaska! There's not even no black people. There's not even no like -- crime or, uh, uh like -- Foreign policies, you all may be versed on foreign -- foreign policies."

No crackheads? No crime? Wouldn't we want the governor of that state to replicate the achievement nationwide?

And for what it's worth, the Census numbers I found show in 2005, over 31,000 African Americans lived in Alaska. I'm pretty sure 31,000 is more than "not even no" black people.

31 August 2008

Labor Day Forecast

Check out the forecast for Houma, LA for tomorrow:

Labor Day

Hurricane conditions expected. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 70 to 90 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Gusts up to 115 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

If you have a forecast like this, it's time to think about changing your Labor Day plans. God help these folks.

Trip to the Gun Range

Our Sunday School class decided last week to cancel today's session, due to the holiday weekend. So Kendel and I did what any bitter Bible and gun clinging couple would do - we took Kendel's new Springfield XD to the range.

She shot quite well, certainly well enough to qualify for a CHL. We hope to get her in class for that soon.

28 August 2008

Got .223?

What do you think is the main item in demand in Louisiana as Gustav takes aim at the state? A friend of mine sent me the answer.

27 August 2008

Possible Terrorism Threats Facing Us

The boys (and ladies) at Stratfor never disappoint with their level of analysis. Required reading.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane/Tropical Storm Gustav

Republican Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana won't be making the same mistakes New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin and Former Louisiana Democratic Governor Kathleen Blanco made when Katrina approached the Louisiana coast. (Apparently Nagin left the Freak Show in Denver to return to New Orleans to "help prepare".....I would submit New Orleans would be better off if he stayed at the Freak Show in Denver.)

______ (insert storm status here) Gustav killed 22 in Haiti and is now forecasted to turn north to hit New Orleans at Cat 3 strength just in time to pre-empt coverage for the Freak Show in St. Paul next week. Don't underestimate the impact this may have on the GOP convention.

Hope all of you along the coast are ready for this.

24 August 2008

I must confess I've lost some interest in preparedness. I believe three things acted together to diminish my interest in the subject.

1. No terrorists attacks in the U.S. in 7 years. Next month will mark the 7th anniversary of 9/11. We are blessed we've not been hit again. Of course, I fully realize it could happen again. A friend of mine pointed out a few months ago our last two presidents were tested their first years in office (Clinton with WTC 1 in 1993; Bush with 9/11 in 2001). It's hard to stay vigilant when the threats are more remote. Now that I've typed this, I will eat my words, I am sure.....

2. The lost opportunity costs. How much have I spent in money and time preparing for something that never happened? Y2K, terrorism, etc? Answer: a lot. While I did enjoy my efforts (I'm weird like that) and I did sleep better knowing I was ready, it's still time and money I will never get back.

3. My spiritual beliefs. In the last couple of years, I've re-examined my faith (something I believe we should all do from time to time). I worry less now and trust God more. I realize this doesn't give me license to slack off in all aspects of my life, my attitude towards worrying about risks has changed dramatically.

Many of you who've read this site over the years (and yes, this month this site has been around - in one form or another - for five years now) know I've altered my approach to preparedness on more than one occasion. While it may seem flaky to do so, I've learned self evaluation and improvement comes only when we're willing to admit we have to change how we're currently doing things. And so I shall.

I'm still re-thinking how my newest evolution will look - it's a work in progress - but rest assured I will share it with you.

Speaking of sharing it with you, remember when Little Brother sent me this email back in January 2006?

Your narcissistic ramblings have got to be tedious for your readers.....How many times can people read about your sprouts, your guns, your obsessive list making, your plans for the apocalypse, etc. ?  They need a diversion.  Who wants to read “Today, I discovered a new use for aluminum foil. If you wrap your head it in it, it helps you get better reception on your ham radio.  You can also use it to wrap stuff in. So I went to Costco and bought 3,000 yards of it.”

I still laugh when I read this. At any rate, the whole point of sharing this stuff with you is so that hopefully you'll learn from my missteps and get some food for thought. I don't claim to have all the answers. I just hope you take something positive away from your time here.

Speaking of Little Brother (he's asked me not to refer to him as Governor Martin on this site), he's in Denver this week as a delegate for Obama. I will share my thoughts on the election in subsequent posts.

Finally, on a sad note, some of you will remember Sergio from South Africa who posted from time to time on the message board. I received an email telling me he passed away earlier this summer in a motorcycle accident. Compounding this tragedy is the fact his wife and mother of their two children died during a surgery six weeks earlier. Please keep their family in your prayers.

22 August 2008

Well, I am back on the air again. I hadn't blogged in a long time, so I hadn't checked out my own site in quite a while. A got a note that my site had been hijacked by Turkish muslims....no joke. If you saw it a few weeks ago, you know exactly what I am talking about.

At any rate, I switched webhosting companies and upgraded my web software to prevent that from happening again.

I will be putting the website back together in coming days. At this moment, I am not sure what I direction I am going to take wth the site. Stay tuned.

Farmer's Almanac

This year's almanac predicts a very cold winter. I haven't a clue how accurate the Farmer's Almanac is. Note if they are right, this will no doubt increase demand for energy even higher this winter.

My New Toy

Due to a lack of common sense, I fulfilled a life long dream this spring and bought an airplane. N2684T is a 1971 Cherokee 140D. I am learning to enjoy aircraft ownership - lots of pleasant evening flights, after work, to and from the repair shop for various things.

I am keeping the plane hangared about an hour outside of Austin. The hangars closer into town are unbelieveably expensive to rent.

And no, I have no idea what sort of preparedness need the airplane fills....other than another means of escape if and when the collapse occurs. But it did give me a great excuse to create yet another survival kit.

Kendel's Got A Gun

Kendel had a birthday recently. She'd been to a basic gun class back in the spring, and she shot several guns including a Springfield XD. So for her b-day, she got one - a 40 caliber version with a 4 inch barrel. Next stop - CHL class.

It's like I always say - The family that shoots together, shoots each other.

18 December 2007

Below are my notes for Friday's presentation at work.

In the coming weeks, several threats should give us reason not to let our guard down. While some of these problems have been with us for some time, others are relatively new phenomena to the extent they are more common recently than they have been in the past.

I believe we currently face four threats for which we should remain prepared:

1. Winter weather. Here in Texas, we are already experiencing winter weather in the northern part of the state. The official forecast from NOAA is for a warmer and drier winter than average, however. Ironically, recent ice and snow storms in the central U.S. (which is in this warmer than normal forecast area) left over a million people without power and claimed over 20 lives. We should not allow this forecast to cause us to feel complacent.

2. Avian Influenza. The recent report out of China of a father and son becoming infected with H5N1 has people concerned the virus may have been transmitted human to human. As we are entering flu season, this concern warrants more attention. Earlier this week, the WHO dispatched a team to Pakistan to investigate the deaths of four brothers in South Asia's first reported outbreak of avian influenza. The AP quoted one WHO official as saying "it's possible" the transmission was human to human. Human to human transmission, if possible, would indicate the H5N1 virus has successfully mutated into something much more problematic than the strain of H5N1 officials have dealt with previously.

And if you don't get it while traveling to South Asia, you may very get it from your hotel room.

3. Cyber attacks. A recent CNN report showed how quickly our powerplants can be destroyed with a cyber attack. We, the general population, really doesn't know just how big of a risk such an attack is. We do know, however, that if such an attack took place, it would have a catastrophic effect on our society and economy.

4. Random violence. Recent shootings at malls and churches remind us this time of year can be unsettling for many people. The recent rash of violent attacks, however, are relatively new to the United States, in terms of frequency and severity.

How do we prepare for these events? I suggest six steps to maximize your family's ability to withstand one of these events.

1. Know the basics, and execute them well.

• Having food and water on hand at home and in your car for an extended period will give you a huge advantage. For winter weather, a week's worth of supplies should be sufficient. Experts on avian influenza recommend at least thirty days worth of supplies allowing you to be completely self contained in your home.
• Being aware at all times of your surroundings - in malls, churches, at work - will improve your odds in the event of a violent incident.

2. Prepare your family now for the possibility of these events.

• Do you have a strategy to contact your family in the event of an emergency?
• Do you have a strategy to get home or to shelter in the event of an emergency?

3. Regarding winter weather...

• Monitor the weather regularly. At a minimum, check the forecast daily. Winter weather events have a way of forming rapidly and changing rapidly. What starts out as a forecast for rain 48 hours from now can turn into an ice or snow event. A weather radio is always a good investment.
• If you are traveling away from home, have winter weather clothes and other necessary items with you in case you get stranded by weather or breakdown. Plan your travel when possible to avoid traveling at night.
• Having food and water on hand at home and in your car for an extended period will give you a huge advantage.

4. Regarding avian influenza...

• Get your flu shots.
• Wash your hands and use hand sanitizer.
• Have enough food, water and supplies to cut yourself off from the world for 30 days. Note I think this would only happen in a very extreme circumstance - I expect life to go on, with a few interruptions here and there - during a pandemic.
• If you have to stay home, have enough activities for you and your kids available to keep yourselves entertained.
• Remind kids the importance of good hygiene.

5. Regarding cyber attacks on the power grid...

• Having food and water on hand at home and in your car for an extended period will give you a huge advantage.
• Emergency cash is a good idea - since ATMs, banks, etc. may not be accessible.
• Be prepared for basic home protection.

6. Regarding random violence...

• Be prepared for basic self protection.
• Be prepared to leave an area quickly, and make sure the family knows the plan.
• Trust your instincts.

16 December 2007

I had a long drive home from a business trip last Friday afternoon - in the rain. My car looked nasty from hours of splashing through road grime. So this afternoon, after I cleaned my car, I applied Rain X to my car's windshield, as well to as my wife's.

I am a big believer in Rain X. If you've never tried it, by all means go to the store and buy some this week in the automotive section. It's a miracle drug for improved visability in the rain. It purportely improves your windshield's abiltity to prevent ice and snow build up, but I don't know about that first hand.

The experiement I did today was to apply two coats to my car, and one coat to hers. I want to see if there's a noticable difference in effectiveness and duration between one coat and two.

Also, I got an early birthday present from Kendel this year - a Palm Treo 755. It's a PDA with all sorts of cool features. I got it primarily for my real estate business, but it has all sorts of preparedness applications. For example, I can watch Tropical Update from the Weather Channel on it, as well as access the internet. On Friday, I used it to pull up local radar to see what was in front of me on the way home. Another cool feature is "Google Maps," which as the name implies, lets you use your PDA as a map.

I am making a plan for preparedness activities for the first quarter of 2008. I am primarily focusing on creating a new plan for my new situation - a different neighborhood, now with a spouse and stepchild. I don't see the challenge being insurmountable by any stretch, but it will be challenge from living in a rural area, to an apartment, and now to a suburban home environment.

Later this week, I will post my notes from this Friday's work presentation on upcoming threats.

12 December 2007

Just a quick note to let all know I am well. My friend Paul from college was in town last night and took Kendel and I to dinner. It was great seeing him. He mentioned I had not blogged in quite some time.

I am scheduled to lead a discussion at work on the risks we face in the next ninety days. The way I score it, it looks like this:

1. Winter weather. Here in Texas, we are already experiencing winter weather in the northern part of the state. The official forecast from NOAA is for a warmer and drier winter than average, however.

2. Avian Influenza. The recent report out of China of a father and son becoming infected with H5N1 has people concerned the virus may have been transmitted human to human. As we are entering flu season, this concern warrants more attention.

3. Cyber attacks. A recent CNN report showed how quickly our powerplants can be destroyed with a cyber attack. Such an attack could have catastrophic effects on our economy and society.

4. Random violence. Recent shootings at malls and churches remind us this time of year can be unsettling for many people.

These are the things I am preparing for over the next few weeks.

20 September 2007

I came across a very interesting story you weather junkies might appreciate. I am glad to see the National Weather Service will be issuing more precise severe weather alerts starting this fall.

Big changes coming to paultmartin.com in the not so distant future. Tomorrow, I will be placing my newly minted real estate salesperson's license with a local real estate broker. You know that means.....the site will (hopefully, if I am successful) cease being a disaster preparedness site and instead become a real estate site. I gotta do what I gotta do.

My plan is to save much of the disaster preparedness content I have created over the years and place it under one link on the tool bar. So for the three or four of you who use those materials from time to time, they will in large part remain on the site. However, when you visit the website after the changes, it will be clear to the casual customer the site is about real estate and not about preparedness.

16 September 2007

I am almost done with the move into Kendel's. Moving into a new home is always challenging, no matter how much stuff you try to get rid of before the move.

It also presents a number of issues to be addressed once I'm settled in. I need to think about how to be better prepared for a disaster now that I am back in a house, rather than an apartment. Now that I have a family and pets to think about, it necessarily makes the plan more complicated. However, Kendel remains interested in improving our prepardness level, and having more storage space for my gear makes things much easier.

I also need to get a better feel for security issues facing the neighborhood. To that end, I am meeting with some folks from the neighborhood association to talk about crime issues. We're also going to discuss the feasibility of a neighborhood watch. It should be quite interesting.

7 September 2007

First, it was great visiting Cliff and Marty this week in Houston. I was there for a continuing legal education conference; I met up with Cliff and some of his gun buddies Tuesday night, and then I had dinner Thursday night with both Cliff and Marty. They are very prepared people indeed.

I also went to Lakewood Church - housed in the former Compaq Center in downtown Houston - for Wednesday night services. Regardless of what you think of the church's pastor, Joel Osteen, you owe it to yourself to attend at least one service there. It's impressive to say the least. Kendel asked me to describe it - the best I could do was to say "imagine what a church would look like if a cruise ship ran one." I don't say that to be critical - quite the contrary - as they have had to shoe horn a very large church into a building designed for NBA basketball and Metallica concerts.

Joel's sister Lisa delivered the message that night. She is much more "fire and brimstone" than her brother, in my opinion. She did a great presentation on Ephesians 5 and how we all need spiritual mentors, citing Psalm 101:6 as an example.

At any rate, I was driving home from Houston this afternoon when Cliff called to say the Osama Bin Ladin video had just been released. He added "Bin Ladin asked America to convert to Islam."

Without thinking, I made my usual flippant, yet predictable response. "I'll get right on that," I told Cliff. (Personally, I figured I'd convert to Islam only if I got sent to prison, because that's apparently what you're supposed to do there. I saw it once on an episode of Oz on HBO one night).

Then Cliff reminded me OBL got in trouble with some clerics after 9/11 since he failed to warn Americans and offer them an opportunity to convert before the attack. From the news reports I saw, I learned some Muslims believe that in order to attach a non-believer, you must give the non-believer the opportunity to convert to Islam.

Cliff raised a very good point. Does OBL's invitation to convert act as a trigger or final warning of some impending attack? If so, what should we be doing in the short term?

Having just moved, I am still trying to get settled into my new crib. But I will be spending some time this weekend working on ways to improve security and preparedness around here.

30 August 2007

A few quick items:

.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking four - count them - four systems in tne North Atlantic right now. It appears this one is the only one that warrants any further watching.

I also wanted to mention that while I am a big fan of my Surefire flashlight, it is going back to the factory. It has some sort of short in the switch. It won't reliably activiate when I hit the switch.

Finally - Texans - September 1 is almost here. That means we are literally hours away from the expansion of the castle doctrine. Prepare as you see fit.

27 August 2007

My stepdaughter got her wish this evening - a used guinea pig. Her mother said this was "y'alls" project (for those of you not from the South, the term "y'all" denotes the second person plural, as in "If there are problems with the guinea pig, y'all deal with it - not me). A nice co-worker of mine gave her the cage and supplies, and another friend of her mother's gave her the guinea pig.

I'm terrified the dogs will see the guinea pig as a snack and try to rip its head off. We'll see.

On the news front, Newsweek is doing a big splash on the current risk of terrorism.

20 August 2007

We got back from our cruise vacation last night - tired but happy. We had a great time, always one step ahead of Hurricane Dean. Speaking of which, I am pleasantly surprised at how proactive the state of Texas is being in its preparedness efforts. Gov. Rick Perry will not make the same mistakes New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin or Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco did.

A few things to share with you this evening:

• In the wake of recent norovirus outbreaks on cruise ships, Princess placed Purel dispensers all over the dining areas and strongly encouraged people to use them. One guy wouldn't give you silverware until he saw you take a hit from the dispenser. Good for them.
• What provisions are in a life boat you ask? I saw the checklist in one of the lifeboats, which was used to tender us from the ship to shore. For every person, each life boat contained three liters of water and 10,000 kiljoules of food. What is a "kilojoule" you ask? It's basically the metric version of the calorie. One kilojoule is equal to 4.2 calories. Thus, the boat carried approximately 2380 calories per passenger. Not much if you ask me, but then again, in our obesity plagued nation, I suspect many of us have a few calories stored up in reserve (including me - I didn't miss many meals during the cruise in their "all you can eat 24 hours a day" format).
• Perhaps a bit more interesting was the "fishing tackle" that was carried on board as part of the mandatory equipment on a lifeboat. So let's see - three liters of water (which won't last long in the Caribbean heat), 2380 calories in food (which, if you're curious, is the rough equivalent of 4.5 Big Macs), and all the sushi you can catch and eat.

Ironically, I was hardly prepared for this cruise. Given the move into Kendel's house, I hardly had time to pack. I took no extra provisions nor my shortwave radio. I suppose this is my version of living dangerously. I am lucky to have survived.

Meanwhile, the stock market is going nuts. I mentioned Jim Cramer's cranial detonation in an earlier blog. Not a week later, the Fed did exactly what he was screaming for them to do - open the discount window and put some liquidity into the markets.

I don't know about you, but I think this whole subprime thing should come as no surprise to anyone. It's called subprime for a reason. Please note I am not being critical of anyone who buys a house with a subprime loan - we're all entitled to live the American dream and make decisions for ourselves, without interference from the government or others. But when lenders are loaning people far more than the value of their homes, with no credit or salary checks, they run the risk of getting burned when the economy hiccups - which is what's happening now.

One other thing - I found a really cool feature you all need to know about. You can send a text message via email to any phone capable of sending them by emailing XXX-XXX-XXXX@teleflip.com. (And yes, the Xs stand for your cell phone number you're trying to email.). I tried it and it works quite well. This could be quite useful in an emergency.

9 August 2007

So are we melting down or aren't we? Today's 400 point drop in the Dow, along with comments from leading economists, make you wonder. I have to think that with consumer confidence at a high level, unemployment at a low level, and a healthy global economy, this has to just be a hiccup. However, I've been wrong before about things like this.

While I am not hearing any stories on the terrorism front, I did come across this story today by some guy advocating we have another 9/11 in order to "bring the country together."

7 August 2007

In transition this week - moving from my old place to Kendel's. I just got my computer hooked up and doing a quick test blog. I recently had my computer overhauled - increasing RAM from 256 MB to 2 GB. What a difference it makes.

Weather out in the tropics looks good for our upcoming cruise, much to my chagrin. I'd like nothing better than to get buffeted by a tropical system.

What do you make of Trent Lott's recent comments about getting out of Washington in August because of terrorist threats?

And what's up with the stock market? Did you see Jim Boo-yah Cramer's head explode the other night?

30 July 2007

This evening, Kendel wanted me to post something on my website via a backdoor for some project she's working on. It was rather challenging to do, since it's been over 7 months since I've blogged or messed with the site for that matter. So I figured I'd put up a short blog just to see if I still remember all of the procedures and functions to do so.

She and I are getting married soon. This means I am moving out the "Old Apartment," which is quite reminiscent of that song by the Bare Naked Ladies. Moving is a real pain. Fortunately, I am donating the majority of what little furniture I do have to a homeless program at my church. It's a win-win: homeless people get furniture, I get a tax write off AND I don't have to move this stuff again.

Other things going on with me - I got my Texas real estate salesperson's license earlier this month. I haven't quite decided how to use it yet, but I am looking forward to being able to get access to the MLS and see what only the realtors see.

I haven't been to my ranch lately - getting ready for the real estate exam has taken up a bunch of my weekend time. I need to get down there very soon.

Books I'm reading - "Never Eat Alone" by Keith Ferazzi, a great book on networking techniques (because I am not very good at networking). And much to the chagrin of many, I am re-reading Joel Osteen's book, the title of which I can't remember. I didn't pay any attention to that guy until I was cleaning the apartment and had CNBC on one Sunday afternoon. He is a great communicator, and I find his message interesting. I don't agree with all of his points, but I do find some of his comments helpful to me.

As for preparedness stuff, I am moving into Kendel's house, which means I will be starting yet another phase of my preparedness plan. I have postponed a lot of prepping and planning, knowing I am moving in the next couple of weeks. I figure I will get over there and settled in before determining my next big prep project.

I'll post stuff on an ad hoc basis for fun - I don't have any plans to do it regularly, but I should probably do it often enough so as to remember how to do it.

I hope all of you are well. Stay safe.